Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
A Bitcoin valuation oscillator that measures how far the market price sits above or below the aggregate cost basis of all holders — standardized by volatility so readings are comparable across every market cycle.
MVRV Z-score — standardised market vs realized value
The Z-score expresses the gap between market cap and realized cap in standard deviations of market cap, making over/under-valuation comparable across cycles. Historically the shaded zones — below 0 and above ~7 — have coincided with major bottoms and tops respectively, but the band is a full-history statistic and past ranges need not repeat — informational, not financial advice.
What the MVRV Z-Score is
The MVRV Z-Score compares two different views of what Bitcoin is "worth." Market value is the price multiplied by the circulating supply — what the market says the network is worth right now. Realized value (the realized cap) instead prices every coin at the moment it last moved on-chain, which makes it a proxy for what holders, in aggregate, actually paid. When market value runs far ahead of realized value, the average holder is sitting on large unrealized profit; when it drops below, the average holder is underwater. The Z-Score turns that gap into a single, standardized number.
How it's calculated
The formula is MVRV Z-Score = (market value − realized value) ÷ standard deviation of market value. The numerator is the raw dollar gap between speculation (market cap) and cost basis (realized cap). Dividing by the standard deviation of market value expresses that gap in standard deviations — how statistically extreme today's reading is relative to Bitcoin's own history.
Every input is derived from our own Bitcoin full node: realized value comes from a reorg-safe UTXO-age index — the same data behind realized price and MVRV — so the score doesn't depend on any third-party data feed.
How to read it
The score has historically oscillated within a wide band. Readings at or below 0 — market value at or under realized value — have clustered around deep bear-market lows; late 2018 and 2022 both printed sub-zero. Readings at or above 7 have coincided with cycle tops: the 2017 and 2021 all-time highs both pushed the Z-Score past 7 before major corrections. The shaded zones on the chart above mark those conventional undervalued (≤ 0) and overvalued (≥ 7) regions.
Most of the time the score sits somewhere in between, and the middle of the range carries no strong historical signal — it's a context gauge for where price stands relative to cost basis, not a countdown to the next move.
Why the Z-score, not the raw ratio
You can read the raw MVRV ratio directly (market cap ÷ realized cap), but its useful range has compressed as Bitcoin has matured — an MVRV of 3 meant something different in 2013 than it does today. Standardizing against historical volatility removes most of that long-run drift, so a Z-Score of 7 is roughly comparable whether it occurred in 2017 or now. That cross-cycle comparability is the whole point of the Z-score variant. (The chart defaults to a 2012-onward view, because the thin, illiquid 2011 market produced Z-Score spikes far outside the modern range.)
Frequently asked
What is a good MVRV Z-Score?
There isn't a single 'good' value — it's a context gauge, not a signal. Historically, readings at or below 0 have aligned with deep bear-market lows and readings at or above 7 with cycle tops, but past patterns are not predictions.
What does a negative MVRV Z-Score mean?
It means Bitcoin's market value has fallen below its realized value — the average holder is underwater on their cost basis. This has been rare historically and clustered near major bottoms, such as late 2018 and 2022.
How is the MVRV Z-Score different from MVRV?
MVRV is the raw ratio of market cap to realized cap. The Z-Score standardizes that relationship against its own historical volatility, which makes extreme readings comparable across different market cycles instead of drifting as Bitcoin matures.
Is the MVRV Z-Score a buy or sell signal?
No. It's an informational on-chain valuation gauge, not financial advice. It describes where price sits relative to the aggregate cost basis of holders; it cannot tell you what happens next.
Informational, not financial advice.