Bitcoin Puell Multiple
A miner-revenue cycle oscillator (David Puell) — the USD value of daily coin issuance divided by its own 365-day average. High in overheated markets, low at miner capitulation.
Puell Multiple — miner issuance revenue vs. its own yearly average
Puell Multiple = today’s USD value of newly-issued BTC (block subsidy only, not transaction fees) ÷ its own 365-day moving average. Above the 1.0 line, miners are earning more than their trailing-year average in dollar terms; below it, less. Null until 365 days of priced history accumulate. Derived from block subsidy × daily price — informational, not financial advice.
What it shows
The Puell Multiple looks at Bitcoin through the lens of miner income. Miners earn newly-issued coins (the block subsidy) every block; the value of that issuance swings with price and drops at every halving. The Puell Multiple compares each day’s issuance value to its own trailing-year average, turning raw miner revenue into a comparable cycle gauge. It was introduced by David Puell.
When issuance revenue runs far above its yearly norm, the market has historically been overheated and miners are strongly incentivized to sell; when it runs far below, miners are under pressure — historically near cycle bottoms. It describes mining economics, not future price.
How it’s calculated
Puell Multiple = daily coin issuance (USD) ÷ 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance (USD). Daily issuance is the block subsidy — the newly-minted coins per day — valued at that day’s price. The classic definition uses the subsidy only and excludes transaction fees. We read the per-block subsidy straight from the Bitcoin blockchain via our full node and recompute the metric daily. Dividing by the 365-day average cancels most of Bitcoin’s long-run price growth and issuance decline, leaving an oscillator that is comparable across cycles.
How to read it
A reading of 1 means miners are earning exactly their trailing-year average. Readings well above 1 (historically around 4 or more) have marked overheated, top-of-cycle conditions; readings well below 1 (historically around 0.3–0.5) have marked miner capitulation and cycle lows. It sits in our mining & network section rather than the holder-behaviour oscillators because it is a supply-side, miner-economics measure. Informational, not financial advice.
Caveats
A halving cuts the subsidy in half instantly, so the multiple can dip around a halving until the 365-day average catches up — a mechanical effect, not a market signal. This is the subsidy-only definition; a fees-inclusive variant exists and reads slightly differently in high-fee periods. As with every cycle oscillator, historical bands are a guide, not a rule — each cycle has tended to be less extreme than the last. Informational, not financial advice.
Frequently asked
What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple, created by David Puell, measures Bitcoin miner revenue from newly-issued coins against its own yearly norm. It is the daily USD value of coins issued (the block subsidy) divided by the 365-day moving average of that same value. High readings mean miners are earning far more than usual — historically near cycle tops; low readings mean issuance revenue is depressed — historically near cycle bottoms.
How is the Puell Multiple calculated?
Puell Multiple = daily coin issuance in USD ÷ the 365-day moving average of daily coin issuance in USD. Daily issuance is the block subsidy (newly-minted coins) times price; the classic definition uses the subsidy only and excludes transaction fees. Dividing by the trailing-year average normalizes for Bitcoin’s rising price and shrinking issuance, leaving a comparable cycle oscillator.
How do you read it?
Values well above 1 mean miners are earning far above their yearly average — historically a sign of an overheated market and strong incentive for miners to sell. Values well below 1 mean issuance revenue is unusually low — historically miner capitulation and cycle bottoms. It reflects miner economics, not a buy or sell instruction.
What happens at a halving?
A halving cuts the block subsidy in half overnight, so daily issuance revenue drops sharply. The 365-day moving average absorbs that step down over the following year, which is why the Puell Multiple can dip around a halving and then normalize as the average catches up.
Where does the data come from?
The block subsidy per day comes straight from the Bitcoin blockchain via our full node, valued in USD; the metric is recomputed daily. There is no third-party feed for the issuance side.
Informational, not financial advice.