Bitcoin RHODL Ratio
A cycle-timing oscillator (Philip Swift) that compares the realized value of the newest coins against one-to-two-year-old coins — high in late-cycle euphoria, low in deep accumulation.
RHODL Ratio — realized-value cycle oscillator
RHODL Ratio (Realized HODL) = realized value of coins aged under 1 week ÷ realized value of coins aged 1–2 years, multiplied by the age of the market in days. High readings mean a large share of realized value sits in recently-moved coins (late-cycle euphoria); low readings mean value has settled into long-term hands (accumulation). Log scale; the shaded red / green zones mark the top / bottom decile of its full history. Computed directly from on-chain coin-age data — informational, not financial advice.
What it shows
The RHODL Ratio (Realized HODL Ratio) is a cycle-position gauge. It asks how much of Bitcoin’s realized value — every coin priced at the level it last moved — is concentrated in very young coins versus one-to-two-year-old coins. When recent buyers dominate the cost basis, the ratio runs hot; when value has aged into patient hands, it runs cold. It was created by Philip Swift as a refinement of the older HODL-waves idea.
Historically, extreme highs have appeared in late-cycle euphoria and extreme lows around cycle bottoms — but it describes where value sits on-chain, it does not predict price.
How it’s calculated
RHODL = (realized cap of coins aged <1 week ÷ realized cap of coins aged 1–2 years) × market age in days. Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, so the numerator captures cost basis just bought and the denominator captures conviction supply from the prior cycle. The market-age multiplier (days since the genesis block) keeps the ratio on a comparable footing as the chain matures. Because our node retains the realized value of every coin grouped by its creation day, we compute this straight from that data — no chain reprocessing and no third-party feed. The series is on a log scale because it swings across several orders of magnitude each cycle.
How to read the zones
The shaded red and green bands are the top and bottom decile of the metric’s entire history — the highest and lowest 10% of readings ever recorded. The red zone has historically lined up with cycle tops (euphoric, recent-buyer-heavy) and the green zone with cycle bottoms (value settled into long-term holders). These are percentiles of the past, self-calibrating as new history arrives; they are not thresholds that must repeat. Informational, not financial advice.
Caveats
RHODL is a coin-age valuation heuristic, not a signal. The market-age multiplier is a normalization choice, so the absolute numbers only mean something relative to the metric’s own history — read the position within its range, not the raw value. Like all cycle oscillators, each cycle has tended to peak lower than the last, so past extremes are a guide, not a guarantee. Informational, not financial advice.
Frequently asked
What is the RHODL Ratio?
RHODL (Realized HODL) Ratio is a Bitcoin cycle-timing oscillator created by Philip Swift. It divides the realized value of very young coins (last moved under a week ago) by the realized value of coins aged one to two years, then multiplies by the age of the market in days. High readings mean a large share of on-chain value sits in freshly-moved coins — historically late-cycle euphoria; low readings mean value has settled into long-term hands — historically accumulation.
How is the RHODL Ratio calculated?
RHODL = (realized cap of coins aged under 1 week ÷ realized cap of coins aged 1–2 years) × the number of days since the genesis block. Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved, so the ratio compares how much cost basis is concentrated in recent buyers versus one-to-two-year holders. The market-age multiplier keeps the ratio comparable as the chain grows older.
How do you read the red and green zones?
The shaded bands are the top and bottom decile of the metric’s own full history — the highest and lowest 10% of readings ever seen. Historically the red zone has coincided with cycle tops and the green zone with cycle bottoms. They are descriptive percentiles of the past, not predictions; past ranges need not repeat.
Why is the chart on a log scale?
The ratio spans several orders of magnitude across a cycle — from a few hundred near bottoms to tens of thousands near tops — so a logarithmic axis is the only way to see both extremes on one chart.
Where does the data come from?
It is computed from our own coin-age cost-basis data — the realized value of every coin grouped by the day it was created — derived straight from the Bitcoin blockchain, with no third-party feed. The series updates daily.
Informational, not financial advice.