Bitcoin Short-Term vs Long-Term Holders (STH / LTH)

The 155-day line

On-chain analysts split Bitcoin’s supply into two behavioural groups using a single number: how long each coin has sat unmoved. Coins that last moved within the past 155 days belong to short-term holders (STH) — recent buyers and active traders, the more reactive, more likely-to-sell end of the market. Coins untouched for 155 days or more belong to long-term holders (LTH) — supply that has sat through months of volatility without flinching.

The 155-day line isn’t arbitrary. Glassnode found that the probability of a coin being spent falls the longer it has been held, and the slope of that curve flattens out at around 155 days (roughly five months) — past that age, coins very rarely move. Coins simply age from short-term into long-term unless they’re spent, so the two groups are mirror images: every coin the market spends resets to short-term, and every coin left alone eventually matures into long-term supply. (Our split is a straight cutoff at 155 days from the node’s UTXO-age index; some providers smooth the boundary or cluster wallets by entity — the reading is the same, the exact figures differ.)

Holder supply — who owns the coins

The chart above stacks the two cohorts to the full living supply. Rising long-term-holder supply means old coins are sitting still — coins maturing past the 155-day line and not selling, the on-chain signature of accumulation. Falling long-term supply means aged coins are moving again: long-term holders spending into the market, which necessarily converts those coins back into the short-term band.

Rising short-term supply is the more ambiguous of the two — it can be genuine fresh demand from new buyers, or simply the downstream of long-term holders distributing their coins into a rally. Historically, the two have swung with the market cycle: past cycle lows have tended to coincide with long-term-holder supply near its highs and short-term supply compressed, while the reverse — swelling short-term supply as older coins change hands — has appeared as markets ran hot. These are descriptions of past behaviour, read as information rather than a signal about what price does next.

Cohort realized price — each group’s cost basis

Give each cohort its own realized price — its realized cap divided by its supply — and you get the average price that group paid: its aggregate cost basis. The two lines usually sit far apart. Short-term holders bought recently, so their cost basis tracks close to spot; long-term holders accumulated earlier and cheaper, so theirs sits well below.

The short-term-holder realized price is the more closely watched of the two. Historically, price has traded above it during bull phases and below it during bear phases, so it tends to act as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends. When spot falls beneath the STH realized price, the average recent buyer is underwater — a level often described as a stress or capitulation zone, though that is an interpretation of holder pressure rather than a rule.

Cohort MVRV — profit relative to cost basis

Divide spot by a cohort’s realized price and you get that cohort’s MVRV — market value over realized value — an oscillator around 1.0. At 1.0 the cohort is exactly at break-even: spot equals what it paid on average. Above 1 the group is in aggregate profit; below 1 it is underwater.

The two cohorts behave very differently. STH-MVRV hugs 1.0 — short-term holders’ cost basis is always near spot — and that “1-line” has repeatedly acted as support and resistance, with decisive breaks through it lining up with shifts in trend. LTH-MVRV swings far wider and gives a much more distinct read of the cycle: long-term holders sitting on large unrealized gains (a high reading) has historically shown up in late-cycle, euphoric regions, while long-term holders near or below their own cost basis (a low reading) has appeared around deep bear markets.

Read the direction and the break-even crossings, not a specific number — the well-defined MVRV valuation bands you may have seen apply to whole-market MVRV, not to these cohort versions, where only the 1.0 break-even line is on firm footing.

Related: HODL Waves · Realized Price · MVRV Z-Score · SOPR · URPD · all on-chain charts

Caveats

The 155-day line is a modelling convention: it’s statistically motivated — coins rarely move past that age — but it’s still a chosen cutoff, and it can’t read intent. A coin that crosses 155 days might belong to a trader who simply held; a young coin might be a long-term investor’s fresh buy. Cost basis reflects the last on-chain move, so internal transfers, consolidations and custody migrations can shift a cohort’s apparent cost basis without a real change of hands, and lost or dormant coins keep long-term supply structurally high and cheap.

Our cohorts come from raw UTXO age and are not entity-adjusted or exchange-filtered, so absolute figures differ from providers that cluster wallets by entity. And the support/resistance and cycle tendencies here are historical patterns, not guarantees — price has broken through every one of these lines before. Informational, not financial advice.

Frequently asked

What is the difference between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders?
They are defined by coin age. Coins that last moved within the past 155 days are attributed to short-term holders (STH) — recent buyers and active traders. Coins that have not moved for 155 days or more belong to long-term holders (LTH) — patient supply that has sat through months of volatility. Coins age from short-term into long-term unless they are spent.

Why is the threshold 155 days?
Glassnode found that the probability of a coin being spent falls the longer it has been held, and the slope of that spend-probability curve flattens out at around 155 days (about five months). Past that age, coins very rarely move, so 155 days marks a natural boundary between actively-traded and matured supply.

What does short-term versus long-term holder supply tell you?
It shows whether coins are maturing into patient hands or being spent back into circulation. Rising long-term-holder supply reflects accumulation — old coins sitting still; falling long-term supply reflects distribution — aged coins being spent, which resets them to short-term. Historically, cycle lows have coincided with high long-term and low short-term supply, and the reverse has appeared as markets ran hot. It describes holder behaviour, not future price.

What is the short-term holder realized price?
It is the short-term cohort’s average on-chain cost basis — its realized cap divided by its supply, roughly what recent buyers paid. Historically price has traded above it in bull phases and below it in bear phases, so it is often watched as support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends. When spot falls below it, the average short-term holder is underwater.

What do STH-MVRV and LTH-MVRV mean?
Each is spot price divided by that cohort’s realized price — how far the group is, on average, in unrealized profit (above 1.0) or loss (below 1.0). STH-MVRV stays close to 1.0 and its break-even “1-line” has often acted as support or resistance. LTH-MVRV swings much wider: high readings have historically appeared in late-cycle euphoria and low readings around deep bear markets. The numeric bands used for whole-market MVRV do not apply to these cohort versions.

Is this financial advice?
No. The short-term and long-term holder metrics are informational descriptions of how supply is distributed by age and profitability. They summarise on-chain behaviour; they do not predict price and are not a recommendation to buy or sell.